Nasrallah needs to show solidarity with Hamas, in part to ensure a continued flow of funding from Iran. However, Lebanon cannot handle another war, and the other political factions have already been pressuring Hezbollah to not escalate.
Israeli leadership seems to want to go after Hezbollah, but have been warned off by international pressure to not open a second front. This is the other half of Biden’s “don’t”. It’s a warning to Israel to keep the conflict contained.
Ultimately though, Hezbollah are willing and able to go tit for tat. So long as Israel continues to kill off firing teams, Hezbollah will feel obligated to respond. Hamas do have some forces in Lebanon and will attempt to draw Hezbollah into the conflict as they have in the past. So the northern front will continue to simmer with a few casualties daily until the war ends. Or I could be wrong and it will either go fully quiet or fully open.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
BEIRUT, Oct 30 (Reuters) - With dozens of Hezbollah fighters killed in three weeks of border clashes with Israel, the Lebanese group is working to stem its losses as it prepares for the possibility of a drawn-out conflict, three sources familiar with its thinking said.
One of the sources familiar with Hezbollah’s thinking told Reuters that the use of anti-aircraft missiles was one of several steps taken by the Shi’ite Muslim group to curb its losses and counter Israeli drones, which have picked off its fighters in the rocky terrain and olive groves along the border.
“I hope we will be able to keep the quiet on this front,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told a briefing, adding that he believed Israel’s strong defence forces and their actions in Gaza had deterred Hezbollah till now.
Hezbollah, the most formidable Iranian ally in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance”, has long said it has expanded its arsenal since 2006 and warned Israel that its forces pose a more potent threat than before.
Hezbollah’s television channel, Al-Manar, has regularly replayed footage from the latest clashes showing what it says are strikes on Israeli military installations and positions visible across the border.
Hezbollah released a handwritten letter from its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to media last week, saying the fallen fighters should be called “martyrs on the road to Jerusalem”.
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