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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • At least with the air defenses the weakness that was exploited would be common to all air defense systems. It’s a failure of tactics/strategy instead of a technical issue with the system.

    The Ukrainians started throwing tons of cheap drones at targets and forced a dilemma: 1) Engage the drones, exhaust the air defense systems’ capabilities, and then the air defense systems get targeted by cruise missiles/air strike or 2) don’t engage as many drones, which lets them reach their targets.

    Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome system was also overwhelmed with the sheer amount of relatively cheap rockets from Gaza during the Oct 7th attacks, but obviously Hamas lacks the sophistication to follow that up with attacking the systems themselves.


















  • There was also a video clip I saw that starts with a chain link fence and then you hear a sort of whistling sound and something slams down hard with a pretty big explosion. Ofc I’m not sure it’s verified or not but sounded and looked more like the impact of something like a JDAM instead of what you’d expect from the rockets fired by Hamas/Islamic jihad. Which although I understand are deadly, especially in large numbers, I don’t think have the explosive charge anywhere close to the impact in the video (which also seems immediate and not a bunch of secondary explosions.)



  • The only thing I can think of is that some of the more moderate Arab states put some pressure on the Biden administration. Because initially the posture seemed more like they were going to be 100% on board with whatever – even directing the State Department to not talk about things like ceasefires, de-escalation, and the normal stuff that the State Department should always be talking about. And it really seems like that has changed a bit since the end of last week/this weekend after Blinken was meeting with some of them.