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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: May 9th, 2021

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  • Ok, I’ll bite

    1. How has Russia invaded Transnistria? Transnistria was a breakaway region during the collapse of the Soviet union, similar to Gagauzia
    2. No one disputes that Chechnya is Russian territory. Russia cannot invade its own territory.
    3. Georgian military intended to genocide ethnic minorities. Russia supported the autonomy of said minorities.
    4. Crimea was given to Ukraine by Kruschev very recently. It is almost entirely ethnically Russian, and those ethnic Russians voted overwhelmingly to secede during a coup/constitutional crisis as the alternative was staying in a country where there culture and language are banned, or worse become the target of hate crimes from neo-nazi battalions as many cases are well-documented


  • Russia can then ingest Ukraine, continue to seed political distrust in Western countries and then potentially start another war in Europe a few years later.

    Holy shit this is the most mapgame-brained comment of all time. You mean Russia will get enough war score to annex Ukrainian territories, wait a few years for aggressive expansion to die down, spend some admin points to press the “sow discontent” button, then war when the casus belli is ready? Like a classic EU4 blob?

    Stop gaming and read some books.











  • I think you’re wrong actually. The map in question does not seem to use the ISW data.

    This is the point you are referring to from ISW: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-23-2023

    (Aside, According to this arcticle, your 54% is not an actual hard percentage, but an estimate. From their own words, they measure the area of the map using Mercator projection, and state using a different projection would give you a different estimate. They don’t correct for projection error in their measurement, which as I pointed out earlier, biases the figure towards overestimating the recaptured territory in the north, and underestimating the area still under Russia’s control in the south. )

    But compare LiveUA map to the timelapse here. Their data shows large areas under Russian control that are not shown as recaptured on the LiveUA map. I should not have said “looks like” when it is clear from the map that the red area, minus Crimea and pre-2022 DPR and LPR, is still much larger than the blue area.

    Saying 50% has been recaptured is contingent upon how much territory Russia actually controlled in the Kharkiv and Kiev areas during the first few weeks of the war. This figure is insanely variable based on who you ask. In those first few weeks, Russian propagandists would greatly overstate how much territory in the north had been captured. In reality, Russia went into the northern area with a very small force and captured a few highways. If you paint with a very broad brush, all of the surrounding area came under Russian control, even if Russian troops never had a presence there. But that does not correspond to the strict reality.